Hammond Ranch, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

043
FXUS66 KMFR 011118
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
418 AM PDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure remains in the Gulf of Alaska with high
pressure centered over the southwestern US, leaving the region in
southwest flow aloft. With the ridge far enough to the south, the
upper trough has more influence over the region, sending
shortwaves through the southwest flow aloft and maintaining near
normal temperatures through the weekend and likely well into next
week. We`ve got a few more days of thunderstorms in the forecast
through the weekend as additional shortwaves pass through the
area. Then, it looks like a more stable air mass arrives for next
week, and we`ll finally get a break from this persistent
thunderstorm pattern.

Today and Sunday will be the more active days in terms of
thunderstorm coverage with a relative lull expected on Saturday. Yet
another shortwave is expected to pass through the region today,
fairly similar to the Wednesday/Thursday one, but a bit weaker. The
overall set up is similar to yesterday, so thunderstorm activity is
expected in similar areas as yesterday, with the focus of activity
slightly shifted westward -along and west of Highway 97 across the
Cascades then southward into Siskiyou County, with some storms
making it into portions of Jackson/Josephine County. Storm motion is
more southwesterly today vs westerly like yesterday, but is about
the same speed (5-10kts), so storms will be relatively slow moving.
Additionally, PWATs are hovering around 0.85-1.00", so these storms
will be wet and should bring plenty of rainfall like the storms
yesterday. Latest 24 hour rainfall totals from yesterday`s activity
show quite a few reports of 0.50"-0.75" across northern California
and east of the Cascades, with some sites even reaching up to or
just over 1.00"! Again, much like today, storm activity will
diminish after sunset.

As noted, Saturday will be a relative lull in storm activity with
the focus shifting to east of the Cascades across Klamath/Lake
Counties. Then on Sunday, a more defined open trough swings through
region. Thunderstorm activity will increasing with this trough, but
the focus will be along and east of the Cascades and across northern
California. Additionally, this trough will bring cooler than normal
temperatures to the region, with high temperatures on Sunday
expected to be around 10 degrees cooler than normal. Expect some
increased winds in the area on Sunday with this trough passage.

The pattern transitions on Monday. We`ll see another day of below
normal temperatures though a few degrees warmer (mid-upper 80s (70s)
for West (East) Side locations). With the open trough to the
northeast, westerly flow will bring a drier and more stable air mass
into the region, and for the first time in many days, we`ll see
thunderstorm chances drop out of the forecast. This stable pattern
will persist through the week, so at this time, we don`t expect
thunderstorms to return to the forecast through the week. There will
be a few shortwaves/weak fronts to pass through Tuesday and maybe
Thursday, but these will be in west to northwesterly flow, resulting
in continued stable conditions. With zonal to northwesterly flow
persisting through week, temperatures will remain near seasonable
norms with typical daily breezes and periods of enhanced breezes.

Towards the end of the forecast period (Friday 8/8) and into the
following weekend, guidance is hinting at a potential warm-up with
high pressure strengthening over the Pacific Northwest. High
temperatures could reach back into the upper 90s/low 100s (upper
80s/low 90s) for areas west (east) of the Cascades next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z TAFs...A mix of LIFR and IFR marine stratus will
persist along the Oregon coast and coastal valleys through much of
the morning. Areas of clearing and gusty winds are expected from
late morning through the early evening, with winds calming and the
stratus reforming and spreading across the area again in the evening.

VFR will persist for inland areas through the TAF period, though
brief deterioration to MVFR conditions in the vicinity of isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
Coverage of storms will be broad, with only Coos, Curry, and western
and central Douglas counties excluded. Thunderstorms can bring gusty
and erratic winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Friday, August 1, 2025...A thermal
trough will maintain gusty north winds south of Cape Blanco through
at least Sunday morning. This will result in low end advisory level
conditions south of Port Orford and within 30 nm of shore. Winds
will be strongest and seas will be steepest during the afternoons
and evenings this weekend. There may be some improvement to sub-
advisory conditions for the early part of the week, but the thermal
trough pattern returns for the latter half of next week, with
stronger north winds and higher seas possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 AM PDT Friday, August 1, 2025...The
main concern will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening hours through the weekend. Storms will
be wet, with moderate to heavy rain expected with these storms.
Additionally, gusty erratic outflow winds are also a concern near
thunderstorms. A more stable air mass is expected on Monday, and
thunderstorms finally drop out of the forecast through the rest of
the week.

There`s good agreement for another slightly negatively tilted
shortwave to pass through the region today during the time of max
heating and instability. The general consensus among several
pieces of data suggest the bullseye of thunderstorms mid to late
Friday afternoon into Friday evening will be in portions of Fire
zones 280, 623 and 624. However, PWATS are around an inch or
higher and storm motion is expected to be weak, meaning storms
that develop will be slow movers. This will provide the
opportunity for storms to produce wetting rains, some of which
could be moderate to heavy. Therefore despite the expected
frequent lightning, the threat for ignitions should be mitigated
for the reasons just mentioned above. Storm motion will be more
southwesterly today, so storms that develop along the Siskiyous
could move up into portions of Josephine/Jackson Counties today.

Storm activity will be diminished on Saturday with isolated
activity confined to portions of Fire zones 280, 281, 624 and 625
late in the afternoon and early evening. A stronger upper trough
moves into the area on Sunday which could trigger thunderstorms
along and east of the Cascades and northern California. This upper
trough will also bring enhanced winds east of the Cascades Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening. At this time, it looks like RHs
will be just high enough to preclude any critical winds/RH overlap
Sunday afternoon, but near critical conditions will be possible,
which could result in increased fire activity for new or existing
fires.

A dry and more stable flow is likely for the first half of next week
resulting in dry weather and ending the threat for thunderstorms.
Temperatures will cool down some with values near or slightly below
seasonal norms.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$